论文作者：

钱浩祺、吴力波

报告人：

钱浩祺（复旦大学经济学院师资博士后）

Abstract：

Traffic restriction policies have been widely used to alleviate traffic congestions as well as air pollutions. In this study, we propose a novel traffic behavior model to examine the mechanism of traffic restriction policies. We find that policy effects will be largely offset since the traffic flows are transferred to other periods (inter-temporal substitution effect) and spaces (inter-space substitution effect). Besides, traffic restriction policies are generally more effective in the short-run than in the long-run (overshoot effect). These theoretical predictions are supported by empirical evidences from investigating Shanghai’s new traffic restriction policy implemented in 2016 based on a unique high frequency database. Contrary to original policy goals, counterfactual simulation shows that Shanghai’s new traffic restriction policy has caused overall increases in total number of vehicles as well as all six kinds of air pollutants. (JEL C34, C63, D90, Q53, Q58, R41, R48)